Capacity Market Poker

Capacity Market Poker

About two weeks ago, New England got a punch in the mouth from old man winter. I tuned into the Mt. Washington Observatory (New Hampshire) to check the conditions. On Friday evening, February 3, it was cool and breezy at minus 46°F[1] with 99 mph wind and freezing...
Wholesale Electricity Market Mechanisms

Wholesale Electricity Market Mechanisms

PSA I thought of making some wisecracks about the trial balloon that the Chinese Communist Party drifted over the United States. Whatever the intent, it’s no good. The thing that gave me a chill is that these balloons are a top ‘delivery platform’ for a nuclear EMP...
Power Grid Vulnerabilities; Eyes on the Prize

Power Grid Vulnerabilities; Eyes on the Prize

In this year’s twelve-pack of predictions for 2023, I forecast that the attacks on the U.S. power grid would continue, and the media would desperately attempt to blame their ideological opponents as extremists. Yawn. The attacks certainly risk public welfare, safety,...
Flowing Water at 22 Degrees Fahrenheit

Flowing Water at 22 Degrees Fahrenheit

As undergraduate mechanical engineering students, we took materials science courses and studied phase diagrams like the one below from “Metallurgy for Dummies.” Does that appear to be dummy-grade to you? It gave me a chuckle. A phase diagram for water (below) is...
Lifetime Carbon Impacts

Lifetime Carbon Impacts

If we are counting on energy efficiency to account for a large part of reducing carbon emissions, we need to count lifetime savings accurately. Annual CO2 emissions in the US may be leveling off or declining, but CO2 lasts a very long time in the atmosphere and its...
Decarb Warriors

Decarb Warriors

Last week I read a statement from a retail energy provider. It said, “100% green rates, always.” It doesn’t work that way. An aggregation of power sources, including renewable, nuclear, coal, and natural gas, are supplying the grid at any given time. The little...
A Twelve-Pack for 2023

A Twelve-Pack for 2023

A Twelve-Pack for 2023 Last year Las Vegas booked my predictions at 1:1.5 odds. This year I’m being more aggressive and expect something closer to a 3:1 weighted average. Below, I include my estimates for each forecast. Ukraine War I’ll get the tough stuff out of the...
2022’s Lucky Seven Lookback

2022’s Lucky Seven Lookback

This post features the results of my Lucky 7 predictions I made a year ago, a grade for each omen, and a little sass here and there. Coal Record Prediction: Annual worldwide coal consumption will pass the all-time high set in 2014. Result: The Internation Energy...
Deep Thoughts from a Scatterbrain

Deep Thoughts from a Scatterbrain

With most people off this week, it is a good time to probe the mysteries of life that I have accumulated in recent years. Food Let’s start with a great food mystery; the hamburger. Every other burger has the key ingredient in the name: turkey burger, walnut burger,...