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Texans may need Tabasco, not just for their favorite dish or condiment, but as a deterrent to chewing their fingernails as they ride the cliff of blackouts this summer. Numerous articles, including this most recent one I saw from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, caution of rolling blackouts as capacity margins are less than 7.5%, whichRead more

This week, we finish the series on attribution studies. First, let me explain, while I beat up attribution assessments, they are necessary. This post will conclude with how I think they should be used. Experimental v Quasi-Experimental Second, I want to make a couple comments about last week’s post. Near the end, I explained randomizedRead more

This week, we are continuing our dive into attribution, which is the impact an intervention or program has on a population – in our case, efficiency programs in a service territory or state. Last week, I used the term comparison group rather than control group. They can be used interchangeably and sometimes erroneously. A comparisonRead more

In the last two Rant posts, we learned that our 40-year-old program evaluation frameworks need to change to capture greater, real impacts. Rather than improving programs and accurately determining impacts, archaic evaluation methodologies are impeding progress toward greater energy savings. It may be like solving the percolating national debt crisis, but I will attack thisRead more

If efficiency programs were telephones, the evaluation community would still be using wall-mounted analog dial-ups rather than the iPhone. Yes, I’m going to tell you why programs are designed to be evaluated and not to be effective, part 2, herein. The following is the list of flaws in demand-side management theory, as presented last week.Read more

Two weeks ago, I wrote that efficiency programs are designed to be evaluated. They are not designed to be effective. That quote, or paraphrase, came from the great Val Jensen, Exelon’s Senior VP of Strategy and Policy, as spoken at AESP’s 2019 Annual Conference. Val is great because he is genuine, authentic, and tells itRead more

This post rolls out better ideas for pay for performance (P4P) programs you read about in the last two posts here and here. But first, I will set the stage from the perspective of the program implementation contractor. Perhaps it is best depicted with a scene from the cartoonish 1977 Clint Eastwood flick, The Gauntlet.Read more

This week, we are continuing the discussion from last week’s Pay 4 Performance Sequel post. There is a sequel to the sequel? Last week’s sequel referenced the first attempts at P4P programs, which were delivered around the turn of the century in response to the utility deregulation craze. This post takes us a few stepsRead more

For some strange reason, I’ve learned a lot about pay for performance in recent weeks. To spare tongues everywhere, let’s call it P4P. P4P efficiency programs are on the move once again. It is interesting to note that the last time P4P was the rage was during the deregulation gambit, almost 20 years ago. LikeRead more

Last week, we explored ethanol carbon content, carbon caps and markets, and refiner profits on gasoline and diesel fuel. Wasn’t it fantastic stuff? This week, we describe precisely how the fluids you use to fuel and lubricate your vehicle are manufactured, what drives their costs, and how they impact efficiency. Feeling tingly? Let’s go! DivergingRead more

I recently researched many attributes and market effects for liquid fuels for a project we are working on, and like my digging into the wind and climate studies, this research results in several findings. This post covers ethanol and gasoline blends. A future post will cover fuel cost and impacts on electric vehicles and utilities.Read more

Many of us at Michaels are gluttons for data and accompanying analysis. Our homes are test beds. In this post, we look at impacts from smart thermostats, the dangers of wrong assumptions, and extrapolating findings for impact evaluation. Every smart thermostat evaluation I’ve seen uses billing regression models to estimate savings. Unfortunately, this provides anRead more