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Jeff Ihnen

Micro to Hyperscale, Data Centers as a Service, and Everything in Between

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Last week, I was on a webinar when the following chart emerged as a forecast for decarbonization. I quickly thought of two things. First, an example from The Wall Street Journal, “Government often uses ‘catalytic tools’ such as regulation, tax incentives, grants, and loan guarantees to prompt innovation outside of government.” In other words, private equity and venture capitalists are not daft enough to shovel billions into hydrogen development. Only the government will do that. Hydrogen via electrolysis by renewable electricity supply can be done, but not cost-effectively. It will cost multiples of the price per million Btu of natural…
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Mini, Macro, and Mega Looks At the Modern Data Center Industry

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Every day, there is a headline about the explosion of data center growth and associated electric loads that will rapidly deplete reserve capacity on the electric grid. The Energy Rant featured several posts to describe the magnitude of the issue and concern among regulators, utilities, and government officials, most recently from the Mid-America Regulatory Conference and Syncing Power Generation with Soaring Loads. Since load management and reliable and affordable electricity are near and dear to me and because Michaels has been successfully engaging with developers of monster data centers, I pounced on the opportunity to attend the inaugural Data Center…
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Climate Policies That Work or Not

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I had already selected my topic for this week (most climate policies don't work) when I had the good fortune to cross paths with a Wall Street Journal article, 7 Years, $700 Million Wasted: The Stunning Collapse of New York's Traffic Moonshot. The policy attempted to penalize drivers for entering congested zones of Manhattan. The $15 per incident congestion charge would sum to over a billion dollars per year that would fund biking and mass transit improvements. New York City has the most snarled traffic in the world. The Journal reports, "The average travel speed in Midtown fell to 4.5…
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Electricity’s Decoupling From Fuel Costs

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Two years after natural gas prices spiked, resulting in a jump in coal consumption for electricity (see Figure 1), natural gas prices have plunged to inflation-adjusted record lows. The Wall Street Journal reports drillers and producers are curtailing activity as storage bulges at the seams. Figure 1 United States Electricity Production by Source (eGRID) Figure 2 Natural Gas Futures Prices Price suppression is partly due to the recent mild winter and summer, which produced only a few early heat waves to stress the Southwest and West Coast grids. Electricity Prices Decoupling from Fuel Cost Electricity prices are rising because, as…
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The Energy Transition Grind

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Longtime Rant readers know I keep both feet on planet Earth, capturing all sides (typically two) and explaining, yes, but (fill in the blank). For the next case study, I was recently presented with a slide deck from the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), The Cleantech Revolution, It's Exponential, Disruptive, and Now. There are many brilliant people at RMI. Amory Lovins, its cofounder, is one such brilliant revolutionary. Amory's famous home in the Rockies can grow bananas in winter. That's great, but is it scalable? It is 4,000 square feet and was completed in 1984 for $500,000, which would be over…
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Fishing for Savants Who Understand Attribution

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This week, I'm reporting on themes presented at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) summer camp, also known as the Summer Study for Buildings, from Pacific Grove, California. Here are the themes: Heat pumps (~ 80 papers) Decarbonization (~67 papers) Equity (~75 papers) The end. The ACEEE summer camp covers a stunning number of papers. There are 13 panels or tracks, two sessions per day, each with three papers presented, for five days. Per my math, that's 780 papers. In addition, there are probably 60 posters to make up the total of nearly 850 studies. The papers probably…
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Ranking States for Clean, Reliable, and Affordable Power

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This is the third and final post in a series of Energy Rants on rising electricity prices and unreliability. The first post, Rising Price of Less Reliable Electricity, defined and quantified the problem and discussed some reasons and challenges in the future. Last week in Electricity Rates and Reliability, I started with a state-by-state analysis of energy efficiency policy, electricity sources, and prices. My research for those two posts tipped off an avalanche of rich data to analyze. This week, I am polishing it off with a grand finale featuring state rankings for composite clean, reliable, and affordable electricity. Electricity…
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Electricity Rates and Reliability – Access and Policy

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For 50 years ending in 2000, electrical loads in the United States expanded at an average of 5.1% per year. For the next 20 years, the growth was essentially zero. Projections for the coming five years are roughly 1% per year (compounded annual growth rate, CAGR). Although that is far from 5% CAGR, it is more than zero, and considering construction of everything from generation to transmission lines is on the decline, something must give. For example, transmission line construction fell from 4,000 miles per year in 2013 to less than 1,000 miles from 2016-2020 to a measly 55 miles…
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Elephant On 3 Legged Stool with Money on his back surrounded by powerlines

Rising Price of Less-Reliable Electricity

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“Americans used to spend little energy worrying about whether the lights would come on at the flick of a switch, or how much that electricity cost. For a growing number of people, those days are over.” Those are the first two sentences of an article published in The Wall Street Journal last week, Get Ready to Pay More for Less-Reliable Electricity. Other nuggets from the article: Customers of the largest 17 utilities in the country are bound to see electricity prices outpace the consumer price index through 2030. Over the ten years ending in 2022, outages increased by 20%. The…
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Portfolio Plateaus, Levitating Golf Balls, and Code Zombies

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This is the third and final edition of the history of energy efficiency and Michaels Energy over the last 40 years. The first edition, covering the Early Years Through Deregulation, spanned 1984 into the Great Depression of Energy Efficiency. The second edition described the resurgence of energy efficiency and the birth of Portfolio Blowouts in the Great Lake States and beyond. This edition covers the efficiency program plateau of the last decade and projects for the future. Lighting Technology Evolutions During the boom and plateau years from 2000 through today, lighting retrofits cycled through every sector – residential, commercial, and…
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