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electrification

Electrified Heating – Thinking it Through

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Daylight Savings Rant It's looking bleak for my annual predictions from January. I must come from behind to realize a 50% hit rate. Last week, Trump implored Congress to make daylight saving permanent. Zerohedge provides a comprehensive assessment of issues from economic to safety. I sum it up this way – people like to complain. They don't like to think. If daylight savings is locked in, it will be dark until 9:00 AM in the winter. If standard time is locked in, the sun will rise at 4:00 AM in the summer. Which would you like? I remember when coming…
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The Next Energy Frontier in Texas

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Pouring Into Texas Money talks, and if states were holding speech contests, Texas would be the frontrunner. While states like California boycott conferences in Florida and Texas over DEI and reproductive policies, those things, unfortunately, don’t matter to some of the most progressive private-sector companies. Last week, Apple announced plans for a new 250,000-square-foot facility to manufacture servers to serve the artificial intelligence market. Per The Wall Street Journal, Austin has the largest concentration of employees outside of Cupertino. I would guess within a decade that Apple will move its HQ to Austin. The Journal also reports Meta moved its…
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Electrification Gangsters

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Last week, I explored the macro impacts of electrifying our heating systems and using ground source (aka geothermal) heat pump (GHP) systems rather than cold-climate air-source heat pumps (CCHPs). In a nutshell, deploying GHPs in the colder regions of the country would reduce necessary electric demand growth by 77 percentage points compared to CCHPs. Ground source heat pumps would also avoid the construction of 43,500 miles of transmission lines, enough to crisscross the United States 16 times. At $2 million per mile, that's $87 billion. That's a rounding error in Washington, but it's a lot of money for the rest…
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Electricity Price Drivers

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The race is on to decarbonize the grid, and those states that are forcing it too quickly are seeing soaring electricity prices. This is fabulous for our industry because energy efficiency and load management have become much more cost-effective. But are higher prices good for customers, industry, and local economies? Probably not. Last week, I attended the Peak Load Management Alliance’s 50th Conference in Brooklyn. In sessions on decarbonization and electrification, practitioners described how the cost-effectiveness of heating with cold-climate heat pumps is already a challenge. Not only are there no savings, but electricity costs are increasing rapidly and are…
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The Future of Automobile Decarbonization

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Two weeks ago, I described the chasm before mass-market electric vehicle adoption. The chasm, as shown in Figure 1 and depicted in the EV Rant as a moat, is the gap between enthusiastic nerds and mainstream curmudgeons. I'm often among the mainstream curmudgeons, but not always. I could be considered an early adopter of smart thermostats and cold-climate heat pumps purchased 11 and 7 years ago, respectively. Figure 1 Market Adoption Curve For automobiles, I have gone out of my way for years, decades even, to find ones with manual transmissions – why? Energy efficiency, for one. There is less…
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The Energy Transition’s Reverse Chasm

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In September, I wrote a series of five Rants on data centers, a concise and comprehensive collection that might just be the Data Center Digest you never knew you needed!   Chip and server power density, cooling, and projected GW load growth. Data center facilities from modular to 200 GW-plus hyperscale. Efficiency ratings and power usage effectiveness scales. Data center HVAC (minus the H because that's not required) options. Future power shortages and power supply complications. The anticipated load growth is due to artificial intelligence, which most professionals believe will explode—and so does Wall Street. Table 1 lists the current…
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A Twofer: Syncing Power Generation With Soaring Loads

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One of many sources of information that fuel my brain to write this blog is the American Energy Society’s Energy Matters newsletter. The newsletter features many items I don’t find elsewhere, and impressively, they seem unbiased – it is what it is. Power Generation According to a linked New York Times article, 200 coal-fired power plants have closed in the last decade, with 200 remaining and 50 slated for shutdown in the next five years. They also linked to this informative, interactive map showing power generation from the Energy Information Administration. The black dots represent the remaining coal-fired power plants,…
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A More Cost-Effective Energy Transition

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A recent Realclearwire.com article noted that since 2021, the cumulative effect of persistent inflation has reduced Americans’ purchasing power by 19%. Since 2021, grocery prices have increased by 21%, gasoline prices have increased by 47%, shelter costs have increased by 20%, and electricity costs have increased by 30%. Wholesale prices rose at the fastest rate in April 2024 since April 2023, signaling persistent pressure on retail prices for months to come. When I read the data, I think of energy prices rolling through everything, adding to consumer prices across the board. For example, diesel fuel prices roll through the food…
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Decarbonizing District Steam and Chilled Water Plants

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Let's begin with Oxford Dictionary's definition of decarbonization. Noun: reduction or elimination of carbon dioxide emissions from a process such as manufacturing or the production of energy. Last week, I introduced central or district plants that serve multiple buildings with steam, chilled water, and, in many cases, electricity. District plants serve colleges, healthcare, manufacturing campuses, and, in some cases, entire sections of cities. This week, I describe issues and strategies to save energy and decarbonize these plants. As I learned early in my energy efficiency career, it is essential to understand the design logic behind the system before recommending modifications. Steam moves…
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Image shows electric car with text "Electric Vehicle Plans with the End in Mind"

Electric Vehicle Plans With the End in Mind

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This week I’m repackaging recent news on electric vehicle (EV) developments – market, technical, and utility impacts. I like to look at scale (macro) rather than ubiquitous siloed micro thinking. Is it realistic to scale rare earth mineral mining, battery manufacturing, and battery disposal? What about charging logistics, third-world labor, and grid impacts? Breaking the Grid? Let’s start with the revelation that force, in the form of mandates, will break things. An aeronautical engineer’s piece in Energy Central, says EVs, at scale, will break the grid. He notes that the Biden regime is developing restrictions requiring the market share of…
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