In the first post in this data center series, I introduced the staggering power density of neural computing systems used for artificial intelligence. At the macro level, in Northern Virginia alone, Dominion Energy projects data center load growth to increase from 3.3 GW today to 50 GW based on requested and projected load additions.
Last week, in the fourth post, I described electric loads at the facility level, which reach well north of 200 MW. Only three to five hyperscale data centers, each with the power requirements of an aircraft carrier, can take all the power from a 1,000 MW commercial nuclear power generating unit.
Nukes Emerging from the Morgue
The exponential growth of data centers is single-handedly bringing back nuclear power. Shuttered nuclear plants around the country are coming out of retirement and back into service. In a deal with Microsoft, Constellation Energy, the nation’s largest nuclear power generator, plans to reopen one of the two Three-Mile Island plants. The other plant was irreparably damaged in 1979 during a series of boondoggles that exposed the reactor core to a steam bubble, resulting in a partial meltdown.
Figure 1 United States Commercial Nuclear Fleet Operators
Amazon’s AWS purchased a 960 MW data center campus next to the Susquehanna Nuclear Generating station (2.5 GW or 2,500 MW) to directly access that reliable, carbon-free flow of 24/7/365 electricity[1].
Michigan’s Palisades nuclear power plant, which closed in 2022, will be the first to reopen next October.
Figure 2 Palisades Control Room Training Facility
In Iowa, NextEra is considering restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear-generating station in Palo, just north of Cedar Rapids. The plant was abruptly shut down after a derecho tumbled its cooling towers across bean fields like little trash cans. That sudden loss of the plant’s primary heat rejection system resulted in – wait for it – nothing. No problem.
The Duane Arnold plant can provide up to 600 MW of carbon-free electricity 24/7/365. NextEra is considering this about three years before Google’s new $576 million data center will be operational in Cedar Rapids. Judging from the price tag, that may be a 100 MW load[2]. The Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO) reports Google’s Cedar Rapids load may grow to 600 MW. Now, isn’t that interesting?
Resurrected Nukes – Drop in the Bucket
Will these several nuclear power plants serve the soaring demand for carbon-free energy for data centers? Mmm, maybe for a year’s worth of data centers coming online. An article from Hart Energy recently put it this way: “A Microsoft Corp. deal to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant to power new data centers is ‘not a needle-mover’ against natural gas demand growth from the AI boom, EQT Corp. president and CEO Toby Rice told Hart Energy. It’s three GW – shows you the scale of the data center buildout.”
We (Michaels) are already aware that one utility does not have sufficient capacity to serve some data centers under construction, leaving the data center owner to build their own temporary power generation. Whoa – think of that cost!
Collocating Nuclear Power
This brings me to my final discussion, collocating power generation, particularly nuclear power, with data centers. There was a panel discussion on nuclear collocation at last month’s Data Center Frontier Trends Summit. As I sat in those sessions, I whispered to my colleague that many dots need to be connected here.
For example, in most states, third parties cannot provide power generation for direct sale to end-user customers. This is part of the compact between regulated monopolies and the communities they serve. Furthermore, building redundancy to be operational 24/7/365/365/365 is exceedingly expensive. What does that mean, Jeff? It means even nuclear power plants can’t run around the clock forever. They need to be refueled every 18 months or so. What will a data center do for a month while this is happening? Go dark? No. It will need the grid even in April when grid demand is at its nadir.
Amazon learned this the hard way with the Susquehanna deal described above. “After striking the deal, Amazon wanted to change the terms of its original agreement to buy 180 megawatts of additional power directly from the nuclear plant. Susquehanna agreed to sell it. But third parties weren’t happy about that, and their deal has become bogged down in a regulatory battle.”
Moreover, “Co-location raises questions about equity and energy security because directly connected data centers can avoid paying fees that would otherwise help maintain grids. They also hog hundreds of megawatts that could be going elsewhere.” A former FERC commissioner chimes in, “They’re effectively going behind the meter and taking that capacity off of the grid that would otherwise serve all customers.”
Pow.
The Future Grid
So, what is going to happen from here? I’m not sure, but whatever it will be, it will not be big enough or happen fast enough. “We’re not going to build our way out of this.” What is the alternative? Darkness? Beeeew -zzzt. Lights out.
Nuclear Vogtle plants three and four were recently completed, and it took seven years longer than expected. You read that right – seven years longer, not just seven years. Meanwhile, newcomer OKLO, with its liquid-metal-cooled fast fission reactor design, completed its initial public offering earlier this year. Oklo’s share price fell by more than half on its first day of trading – not exactly votes of confidence. Oklo has no revenue and hopes to have its first plant online by 2027.
I guess we need a fourth leg of the stool. In addition to clean, affordable, and reliable, we add available. So, I agree with Toby Rice; it will be natural gas. Data center operators will be forced to emphasize clean, affordable electricity and locate where there IS electricity.
[1]Aside from refueling about every 18 months, taking it offline for a month.
[2]An informed guess.
