Seven Chicken Bones Scorecard

Here is my annual scorecard against energy predictions I made 51 weeks ago in Seven Chicken Bones for 2024.

Chicken Bone One

There would be at least five clean energy curtailments of at least $100 million apiece in 2024.

On December 2, 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that General Motors is backing out of a nearly completed battery plant in Lansing, MI, and offloading its stake to Korea’s LG Energy Solution. The facility covers 30 football fields worth $2.6 billion, or $1,500 per square foot.

On April 22, 2024, Utility Dive reported the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority announced the cancelation of three offshore wind projects with a combined nameplate capacity of 4 GW. NYERDA’s provisional grant alone was reported to be worth $300 million. According to Statista, the average first cost of offshore wind projects is $2,800 per kW, making the total investment curtailment around $11 billion.

On October 30, 2024, electrek reported that after its first-ever plant closures in Germany, Volkswagen would close its Audi Q8 E-Tron plant in February 2025. The Wall Street Journal reported on December 20, 2024, that VW would reduce its workforce by 35,000 and cut billions in annual costs to avert “immediate factory closures in Germany.” I couldn’t find the curtailment value, but it’s safe to say the write-down exceeds $100 million.

On May 24, 2024, NewsData.com reported that due to “lengthy waits to interconnect to the bulk power grid, a majority of under-development energy storage projects throughout the United States are being canceled.” The interconnection queue for grid-scale storage at the close of 2023 was 2,600 GW, which is an insane number considering the peak load in the U.S. is a mere 740 GW. Dated July 19, 2024, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory posted an example of a 60 MW, 4-hour battery storage case study for $1,907 per kW, or $114 million total.

For the final blow of this section, on December 17, 2024, Utility Dive reported the Department of Energy nixed seven national transmission corridors. Cited cancelations include the 780-mile Midwest Plains corridor connecting Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Kansas. Kansas called NIMBY. Another cancelation included the 645-mile Delta Plains corridor connecting portions of Arkansas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared, “Another win for Oklahoma,” [and a stick in the eye for Washington]. At a bare minimum cost of $1 million per mile, these project cancelations are easily in the billion-dollar range.

Chicken Bone Two

I projected in 2024, there would be a debacle of at least $100 million in wasted taxpayer clean-energy “investment.”

On December 12, 2024, the Jeff Bezos WAPO reported that defense contractor Oshkosh had only delivered 93 electric U.S. Postal Service delivery vehicles compared to the original goal of 3,000 deliveries at the time of the article. The cost: $3 billion. Schnikes, even if they hit the mark for that price tag, it’s a million dollars per vehicle! “Speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid professional reprisals,” one employee noted, “We don’t know how to make a damn truck.” Correction. They know how to make badass military trucks but not mail-delivery vehicles.

The good news is that for $32 million a copy, postage carriers love them for their air conditioning versus the tiny fan and no air conditioning in the standard 1987 (no kidding) Northrup Grumman design.

Chicken Bone Three

I projected that EV sales growth would slow to less than 25% year over year through Q3 of 2024.

According to Cox Automotive, YTD EV sales grew 8.7% through Q3 of 2024. I have noted in recent years that if EVs are to cross the chasm, the wannabes need to compete with Tesla’s market dominance. For years, Tesla has held 50% of the EV market, as shown in Figure 1. More amazingly, Tesla’s market cap, Figure 2,  is about half of all worldwide automakers combined. Considering that EVs are only 8-10% of the market, that is phenomenal or insane, depending on your perspective. It would be a little of both, I would say.

Figure 1 Q3 2024 EV Market Share

Figure 2 Automaker Stock Market Capitalization

Chicken Bone Four

I predicted the Federal Reserve would cut the federal funds rate before the November 5, 2024 election.

Well, by golly, on September 18, 2024, the Fed voted to cut the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point – right on time!

Chicken Bone Five

I posited that there would be no debates between Biden and Trump in the fall.

Trump and Biden debated on the eighth day of summer 2024. I win. My point was something bizarre would happen, and it did – times ten.

Chicken Bone Six

I predicted, “COP29 will produce more fantasia, meaningless targets, while fossil giant China stays home to build more coal-fired power plants that will burn at full capacity through the COP’s arbitrary deadlines.”

I won’t bother trying to top The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board: “Like the movie ‘Groundhog Day,’ each U.N.’s annual climate confab is a repeat of the last. Poor countries lambaste wealthier nations for their CO2 emissions. Wealthy countries self-flagellate and promise to atone by financing climate projects in developing countries. That sums up the blowout in Baku [Azerbaijan].”

In a separate article, one author claimed Trump’s election win drove COP29 into the arms of the Chinese Communist Party—all too happy to manufacture solar panels, batteries, and EVs (see above) in the country of the world’s dominant polluter (Figure 3). Xi Jinping sent Ding Xuexiang, a vice premier and one of his close confidants, to the summit. I didn’t see that one coming.

Figure 3 World Leaders of CO2 Emissions

Chicken Bone Seven

I suggested, “the Alito/Thomas/Gorsuch wing of the [Supreme] Court will take down Chevron and force Congress to legislate to the whims of the political process.”

I first called this one on May 9, 2023, and it went down on June 28, 2024. Read up! The ruling rebalances power away from the executive branch (federal agencies) to the judiciary and legislative branches. It does not, as is commonly confused, for example, give the judiciary the power to “make technical and even scientific determinations rather than rely on the expertise of agency staff.[1]” No. The courts will rule on laws written and passed by the legislative branch and signed into law by the executive branch. The fourth branch of agencies doesn’t exist. They are part of the executive branch.

Roundup

I almost ran the table on my predictions. It’s a good thing I didn’t because I need apparent integrity. I made some gutsy calls, like the presidential debate, Chevron, and EV sales. Others are easier to hunt down, like blown federal “investment.” Check out my predictions for 2025 next week!

 

[1]https://www.apta.org/news/2024/07/15/chevron-ruling-implications