These are quite the times in which we live, energy and otherwise. It makes predictions tricky, especially when business titans Vivek Ramaswami and Elon Musk hone their meat axes for the federal government. The administrative branch doesn’t pass budgets and write tax law, but… there is a lot it can do, and I suspect it will chop and cleave while stretching up against legal precedents.
Impoundment Will See Court Testing
For instance, the word impoundment and its connected legal implications will become familiar as cable news networks invite guest attorneys to haggle over impoundment’s Constitutionality. Impoundment refers to the administrative branch unilaterally cutting spending by not instituting programs and associated spending already appropriated by Congress and signed into law.
The Impoundment Control Act was passed by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to enact programs he opposed. Was it signed into law? To borrow a tactic from Mom, I’ll answer that question with a question. Why would Nixon sign a bill into law if he disagreed with it? As far as I can tell, it’s a congressional declaration and not a signed law.
Can the Trump Administration cancel programs and associated spending? I think we will find out, but it may take a while. I bet it will be tested in 2025, and lawsuits will be filed.
I would add that contracts and spending commitments for projects that benefit from tax breaks, government-backed loans, and incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will most likely be honored. I learned this from a webinar presented by the Beneficial Electrification League featuring attorney Jeff Genzer with Duncan, Weinberg, Genzer & Pembroke, a DC-based law firm. Mr. Genzer also stated that the Impoundment Control Act is untested, so there you are. Fur will fly.
By the way, rather than calling it the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, pronounced dowzh or d-oh-jj, it should be called the Department of Government Inefficiency, or DOGI, pronounced doggie. Woof!
Daylight Savings Time – No Change
Vivek and Elon plan to eliminate changing clocks twice a year – springing forward for daylight savings in the summer, from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November. That might sound great at first knee-jerk because Americans love to whine about “changing their clocks,” which isn’t even necessary because most clocks are synced with the internet.
I’m not in favor, nor would most Americans if they stopped and realized that daylight savings time optimizes daylight around the school and workday. Do you want the sun to rise at 4:00 AM in the summer or at 9:00 AM in the winter? Take your pick if you want to end changing clocks. The energy implications are negligible, especially given the current LED lighting technology.
Here is a fascinating history of daylight savings time.
Ukraine War Will End
I predict Trump will broker an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will require Ukraine to drop its bid to join NATO.
Electric Vehicle Tax Credits Chopped
As demonstrated last week, Tesla dominates EV sales in the United States, if not the free world. Ford and Rivian are losing well over $100,000 per EV sold. So, what will dowzh recommend for EV tax credits? Chopping block. Why? Because when the competition is drowning, throw them an anchor.
Rivian is bleeding cash at a clip of $1.5 billion per quarter, so the Biden administration threw them a guaranteed loan for $6 billion. 2024 was Rivian’s “make or break year.” Revenue is falling fast, and losses have fallen less fast. I’m not ready to make any calls on this scenario for 2025.
Chevron Reversal Reversals
On the heels of my 2024 called shot, SCOTUS’s reversal of the 40-year-old Chevron Deference case, there will be, mmm, at least five EPA-derived regulation reversals filed or enacted. I’m not sure how these will go down, but it seems if a rule or regulation is not legislated and signed into law, it can be reversed by the current administration with the flick of an ink pen. That’s what dowzh thinks, noting SCOTUS’s West Virginia v. EPA and Loper Bright v. Raimondo (Chevron reversal).
I just realized that Loper involved the case in which the National Marine Fisheries Service invited themselves onboard fishing vessels and required such commercial fishing vessel owners to pay for the uninvited guests’ time. Wow.
Examples of reversals could include the elimination of things like the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards. What will this mean for states like California with their own ambitious mileage standards? Likely nothing because in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, the SCOTUS in 2023 ruled that California is free to reduce supply and increase prices for its citizens by making it harder to supply ham, bacon, wieners, pork chops, and scrapple for farmers and slaughterhouses throughout the United States without prejudice.
NFL Rule Change
The NFL will change its ridiculous kickoff regime back to something normal. I suggest kickoff from the 30-yard line, and the returning team must return the ball unless it goes out of bounds, including through the end zone. If it stays in the endzone, it’s live. Fair catches are allowed with the ball placed at the spot of the fair catch or ten-yard line, whichever is greater. Play ball!
