For 50 years ending in 2000, electrical loads in the United States expanded at an average of 5.1% per year. For the next 20 years, the growth was essentially zero. Projections for the coming five years are roughly 1% per year (compounded annual growth rate, CAGR). Although that is far from 5% CAGR, it is more than zero, and considering construction of everything from generation to transmission lines is on the decline, something must give. For example, transmission line construction fell from 4,000 miles per year in 2013 to less than 1,000 miles from 2016-2020 to a measly 55 miles…
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“Americans used to spend little energy worrying about whether the lights would come on at the flick of a switch, or how much that electricity cost. For a growing number of people, those days are over.” Those are the first two sentences of an article published in The Wall Street Journal last week, Get Ready to Pay More for Less-Reliable Electricity. Other nuggets from the article: Customers of the largest 17 utilities in the country are bound to see electricity prices outpace the consumer price index through 2030. Over the ten years ending in 2022, outages increased by 20%. The…
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In this week's rant, we are excited to include an epilogue written by Michaels Energy employee, Andrea Salazar. Read on to hear her story! In 2023, I wrote that Americans are moving into regions susceptible to wildfires, heat, droughts, and floods because housing was less expensive in such locations. Homes in some places are built among fueling forests, while some communities are built with just enough fire spreaders to be dangerous. A recent Wall Street Journal article, The Hidden Costs of Homeownership are Skyrocketing, drove my points home. Home insurance premiums are soaring – by more than 10% in 19 states in 2023—factor: floods,…
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When I was a kid, maybe in junior high, we were assigned a project to describe, step by step, how to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. After moment of, “huh,” I understood the task and purpose of the assignment. There isn’t enough of this type of assignment in efficiency programs or business today. On many occasions in recent years, I’ve had to explain how the utility business works, how we handle aspects of our business, or how a program process works. When the receiving end is fully invested in understanding these things as well as they can, both…
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What are the key ingredients to high-performing energy efficiency programs? That is the question that came to mind as I randomly grabbed an old edition of Public Utilities Fortnightly out of my six-inch stack of unread stuff. The article is entitled Top-Performing States in Energy Efficiency by Sanem Sergici with the Brattle Group. You can read that yourself, but I only got about three paragraphs in and realized how broadly one must observe to answer the question at hand. Administrators and Delivery Contractors What is an administrator? They are responsible for the results of a portfolio of programs for a…
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In this week's Energy Rant, Jeff Ihnen (CEO at Michaels Energy) interviews Doug Houseman (Principal Consultant at Burns & McDonnell) about energy storage. Doug is a leader and visionary in grid and utility modernization. You'll quickly get a sense of his wealth of knowledge as we take you through our interview-style conversation.
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Livin' it Up in Hotel California I’ve written about pay for performance (P4P) programs no less than six times in this blog. I’ll start with a recap of those posts and move the ball forward once again. We’re well within field goal range! In Tooling Pay for Performance, I wrote that energy models and dashboards with regression models showing savings performance or lack thereof provide the following Leatherman-like benefits. It provides leverage with visual evidence, so customer stakeholders do more and climb higher. It’s a vise-grip to maintain what was accomplished. It’s a hammer to “persuade” folks. It’s a screwdriver…
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One step toward success is ignoring what you like and observing what others like, and how things change with time – I mean, really change! With that note, changes and likes brought about by millennials are a threat, and an opportunity for utilities. My Way I may have been destined for engineering as I rode in the humongous Ford LTD sedan with my parents. I would notice how the automatic transmission would “shift gears” with no apparent action from my parents. I would watch what they were doing just to make sure I wasn’t missing something. Were they clicking a…
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This post is brought to you by the International Energy Program Evaluation Conference (IEPEC), circa 19, er 2015. I moderated one session featuring four great papers and presentations concerning residential space heating and cooling. I also observed one concurrent session for nearly all the timeslots in the conference. The theme I found, which was very pleasing to me, is that doing useful research and evaluation is challenging and expensive. The reason it pleases me is that, well, getting things right is everything, but it also levels the playing field. I hate losing bids, but it is less painful to lose…
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Last week, I mentioned that having a diversified fleet of power generating plants is a smart strategy for any utility; specifically, diversity by fuel source. The recent natural gas bonanza cut loose with the perfection of hydraulic fracturing and mind-blowing drilling capability (vertical a few thousand feet, then horizontal a few thousand feet) has unleashed a fury of kneejerk policy and utility strategy changes. As is common with the Energy Rant, Jeff says, not so fast. It isn’t that easy. There are consequences and major challenges with racing down this road without thinking.First we have the federal government (the EPA)…
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