Models are useful tools. They simplify complex systems, quantify trade-offs, and provide decision-makers with concrete arguments to support their decisions. But models also share a weakness: they assume cooperation from reality. In energy, electrification, and climate policy, models increasingly substitute for judgment, especially when prices rise, incentives fade, or people behave inconveniently. The six predictions that follow aren’t offered as provocation. They’re what tends to happen when markets, politics, and physics stop honoring the assumptions baked into the models.
Tesla’s EV Market Share Will Stabilize—Not Collapse
I admire Elon Musk for this: he pisses off all political persuasions and doesn’t permanently pander to anyone, that I’m aware of (maybe the CCP?).
I project that Tesla’s market share of EVs will increase in the first three quarters of 2026 (it takes too long to get Q4 results for the early 2027 report out) for several reasons.
- Domestic manufacturers, namely Ford (Lighting truck canceled) and General Motors ($6 billion charge tied to reduced production), suck at EVs and should never have attempted to get in the game. They excel in gas-guzzling sport utilities and light trucks of the non-EV type.
- His disassociation with The White House will wear off, although Axios reports he is supporting Rs in the midterms. True?
- Tesla has superior technology compared to other EV manufacturers. From my perspective, backed by AI research, it has manufacturing discipline, superior software, and a charging ecosystem that works (usually).
My favorite shared quotes on EVs and Tesla come from Holman Jenkins from The Wall Street Journal.
- From six years ago, “American car buyers don’t want electric vehicles, they want a Tesla.”
- And from ten years ago, one of my favorite riffs, “Uber is disruptive. Tesla isn’t. Tesla is disruptive mostly of a driver’s confidence that he’s going to reach his destination without needing a tow. Tesla solves no problem of the automobile. It only creates a new problem.”
Range on a Tesla or any other EV is still a significant issue, especially in wintertime. However, Tesla’s self-driving feature is superior to the competition, and they provide a nice ride with a decent driver, including the car itself.
Data Centers Continue Their March Toward Coal-Plant Popularity
Data centers have a voracious appetite for water and electricity. Utility customers, especially residential/consumer types, blame data centers for soaring electricity costs. Here are a few predictions:
- Expect at least one 1-GW data center project to be canceled due to water backlash.
- Several bona fide articles will note that water consumption for cooling is becoming the leading cause of blowback for data center development.
- Similarly, data centers will be blamed for soaring residential rates for reasons I described in the bureaucratic industrial complex. Merchant generators are taking all the cheap base-load power, requiring utilities to supply the peaks, which in turn increases the cost for residential customers. This will be a tough issue for utilities to navigate.
Gasoline Prices Will Undercut the EV Cost Narrative
Here’s a boring one: local (La Crosse, WI) gasoline prices will fall through the $2.00 floor in 2026, taking a substantial advantage for EVs offline. Ironically, as I made this prediction, the price of gasoline jumped from the $2.30 range up to the $2.60 range. We will see what happens!
At Least One SMR Program Will Slip—Badly
There will be at least one major setback for small modular reactor (SMR) companies. Examples could include a delay of a year or more in a pilot project or loss of investor funding. In another example, last September, I reported that the DOE expects SMR developer Oklo to have three test reactors fissioning by summer 2026. I’ll bet that won’t happen. Other difficult feats are featured in the September post.
Load Growth Forecasts Will Quietly Get Walked Back
In my shiny, happy clappy post a few weeks ago, I wrote that load growth predictions due to artificial intelligence had reached absurd proportions. Specifically, in the coming years, we would need 1,000 gigawatts on top of the 780 GW of peak load we have accumulated since Ben Franklin apparently discovered electricity via a lightning strike. More specifically, the investments indicated that we would need 660 additional gigawatts within the next five years. (Not going to happen, for 100.00% sure)
In 2026, we will start to see confessions like this: “Uh, sorry – about those load growth projections, just kidding.” To be clear, I’m not saying load growth won’t be significant. It just won’t be absurd.
The “Climate Crisis” Narrative Will Continue to Fade from Consciousness
The Wall Street Journal reported on December 12:
- In his 2021 book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” Bill Gates warned that the equator would become unlivable. Last October, 2025, [well]… ”Climate change won’t wipe out civilization,” he said.
- Former United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, and current Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, promptly scrapped Canada’s consumer carbon tax in 2025. He also announced a major new pipeline project.
- Former Democratic presidential candidate and billionaire Tom Steyer is running for California Governor, while the word “climate” (as of December 12) was absent from his campaign site.
- In 2020, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated, “Climate risk is investment risk,” and BlackRock is “making sustainability integral to portfolio construction and risk management.” In his letter to investors, March 2025, he wrote, “Prosperity is once again defined by our ability—and our willingness—to produce and consume more energy.” From what, Larry?
I don’t know PM Carney, but Gates, Steyer, and Fink are world-class hucksters.
I forecast that commoners will continue to prioritize their financial interests over any expenses related to climate change mitigation.
Bonus Material
The Comic Section
The comic of the week goes to former First Energy executives pleading to the SCOTUS that bribes are a form of free speech. You can’t make that up, but I think I will top it next week with dueling ironies. Tune in!