Last week, I explored the macro impacts of electrifying our heating systems and using ground source (aka geothermal) heat pump (GHP) systems rather than cold-climate air-source heat pumps (CCHPs). In a nutshell, deploying GHPs in the colder regions of the country would reduce necessary electric demand growth by 77 percentage points compared to CCHPs. Ground source heat pumps would also avoid the construction of 43,500 miles of transmission lines, enough to crisscross the United States 16 times. At $2 million per mile, that’s $87 billion. That’s a rounding error in Washington, but it’s a lot of money for the rest of us. Transmission lines also invoke fierce opposition while boring ground-loop heat exchanger holes in the ground for GHPs are out of mind and sight on owners’ properties.
Green Energy Zealot’s Boondoggle
This week, I loop in a few case studies from the news. The first one comes from a republished article from the UK’s Telegraph. Who cares about the UK, Jeff? The answer is twofold: 1) ignorance and lousy policy are universal, and 2) it is cheaper to learn from other’s mistakes than pay for failure and time, both in effort and on the calendar.
The story’s featured character, Paul Robinson, an unsuspecting “green energy zealot,” merely wanted solar panels to power his property. The grant program required electrification of his heating system, including ditching his oil-fired boiler, deconstructing his home, ripping out “hundreds of meters of copper pipe,” (Hundreds of meters? What?) replacing every pipe, ripping up flooring and floorboards, etc., just to add envelope insulation.
After Mr. Robinson’s home root canal, they installed a 12-kW heat pump. That is huge – about twice the capacity of my heat pump. The total cost: £40,000, or about $50,000. 😂 OMG!
The best part? It doesn’t work. His solar panels generate only 10% of nameplate power (about 1.7% of the heat pump’s full load) for a few hours daily. He’s going to reinstall an oil boiler and sell the heat pump. Thank you, UK taxpayers.
This is an extreme case, but I find it amusing because of the top-down policy ignorance. New England in these United States is headed for a similar boondoggle, as mentioned last week and 15 months ago in Carbon Free Hall of Mirrors, a key graphic from which is presented in Figure 1. The region boxed in by the red line represents bupkis for solar power potential and mostly bupkis for wind potential. You need a plan, New England – in three syllables: nuke u lar.
Figure 1 Renewable Energy Potential Map
Outage Consequences for Electrified Homes
Outage Consequences for Electrified HomesClean Technica presents a second case study featuring a study published on Sage Journals. The title: “Quantifying household vulnerability to power outages: Assessing risks of rapid electrification in smart cities.”
The study’s abstract declares electrified households face “a 60 percent greater vulnerability compared to mixed energy homes.” Presumably, “mixed energy” includes wrongfully dreaded natural gas and dreaded fuel oil.
However, a loss of power renders modern appliances, including stoves, furnaces, and boilers, useless. Therefore, I have a suitcase-size 2.5 kW generator to power my natural gas boiler and circulating pump in case of an outage. It has plenty of power to keep the beer cold and water hot (with natural gas). Get your copy at Farm and Barn today.
Another excerpt from the abstract notes, “While grid level resilience has been widely studied, household scale impacts of electrification remain poorly understood.”
Uh, no. Electrifying a home’s heating system with a 60,000 Btu per hour, aka five “tons” of heating, is a 17 kW load when temperatures plummet well below zero. Hmm. Not far off from Mr. Robinson’s heat pump connected load. Furthermore, although solar and cooling fit like a mitten, solar for heating doesn’t work per Mr. Robinson’s red pill. A lack of sun makes for cold weather in winter, so where is the sun to heat a home? Did I need to write that?
Charlatans and Early Destroyers
A colleague notified me of last week’s implosion of the nation’s first attempt to electrify the entire city (6,000 buildings) of Ithaca, New York, by 2030. Barely four years after BlocPower “promised to help electrify Ithaca” with bulk equipment purchases and low-cost fairy loans, the company is a ghost to the credulous city council – vanished, gone, nobody home. Thus far, ten (10) buildings have been electrified. At this pace, the city will be electrified by year 2621.
Maligned BlocPower left the electrification business line and is now financing and project managing energy efficiency projects. The past has taught me the next step will be incinerating the company name and brand and starting over. The name and brand are like post-1986 Chernobyl – too damaged and contaminated to rebuild.
Grants of hundreds of millions were secured. The city’s sustainability director and BlocPower’s CEO at the time are no longer in those positions. “By mid-2022, the city staff who had shepherded the new electrification program were gone, and the ‘consortium’ of outside’ companies once expected to contribute had disappeared.” It looks to me like a full-fledged gangster operation spearheaded by Tony Soprano.
Like gangster movies, I’ve seen destructive failures like this before. They end in betrayal and destruction, usually without just punishment for the boss. Unfortunately, where millions of dollars are concentrated on novel programs, swindling con artists with no values or purpose swoop in with their Hoovers.
Close
Electrification in cold climates is, at minimum, challenging economically. It’s not going to pencil from energy-cost savings, if there are any, without state or local laws inflicting severe carbon emission penalties for energy users. That’s just the way it is. Anyone promising cost-effectiveness using bulk-purchasing power and fairy financing should be called to the carpet to show their math with a team of engineering curmudgeons in the audience.
