Artificial intelligence is reordering society in many ways. Last week, I wrote, “We may not be getting dumber, but we’re demonstrably becoming more dependent on technology, less innovative, and less creative.” Since then, I have read this interesting article from Bloomberg: Does College Still Have a Purpose in the Age of ChatGPT? College students are kicking back and tasking AI to write term papers and essays while their lazy counterparts, the professors or teaching assistants, feed the papers into AI grinders to evaluate and grade the papers.
“It’s an untenable situation: computers grading papers written by computers, students and professors idly observing, and parents paying tens of thousands of dollars a year for the privilege. At a time when academia is under assault from many angles, this looks like a crisis in the making.”
Remember plagiarism? Who needs it? Just learn to write a prompt for a GPT and let her rip. That will never happen in The Energy Rant.
Diverging Universities
It isn’t taking long for parents who are not AI-enabled sloths to catch on. Colleges and Universities are already spinning into crisis mode. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that enrollment is crashing at many public colleges and universities. The article says that university towns fed off continuous growth, fat budgets, and no concern for trimming inefficiencies and cutting costs for decades. Figure 1 shows total college enrollment has fallen 12% since its 2011 peak, but not all universities are being hit equally. The article reports that flagship campuses like those in Madison, Knoxville, Ann Arbor, Champaign, and Gainesville continue to grow – but is their time coming?
- Tennessee – Knoxville enrollment is up 30% in eight years
- Wisconsin – Madison is up 16% in twelve years
- Illinois – Urbana is up 36% in fourteen years
- Overall, “most prominent” universities increased 9% while the have-nots declined by 2% in the last eight years
Figure 1 College Enrollment
Degrees of Value
Degrees of ValueThe WSJ article fails to discuss the value, or lack thereof, of a college degree these days. There are dozens of questionable majors and sub-majors that are most susceptible to AI. Forbes lists Gender Studies, Ethnic Studies, General Liberal Arts, and Visual and Performing Arts in its “useless” degrees list.
It has always amazed me that 17 and 18-year-olds consider the next four years of their lives and sink tens of thousands of dollars into a degree without considering what’s on the other side.
What degrees are most valuable? The usual: STEM, computer science, nursing, and engineering. Other excellent careers require a hard hat and working in the elements, like construction and utility linemen – trade schools!
Speaking of engineering and nursing powerhouses, my alma mater, South Dakota State University, is riding near its all-time enrollment record. Last year, it captured its largest first-year class ever. I was also blown away by the low cost of premium valuable degrees as I chatted with folks at SDSU’s foundation last year. Thirty-three percent of students graduate with no debt – in the black, money in the bank, no debt. The average debt of graduates is a puny $22,000, and it is falling! Universities that provide value and return on hard-earned investment will continue to thrive.
AI Paradox
The college/AI paradox is that while it displaces a lot of learning, it will ultimately displace many grinding grundoon jobs. The political left and right are equally shoveling AI fear porn over this topic, from coiffed Joe Schnozdexter Scarborough on MSNBC to ultra-MAGA Steve Bannon. Both are prophesying the white-collar apocalypse.
Remember the longshoreman strike in which the union feared automation would displace jobs? That water won’t be held back for long. Trump declared the money saved is nowhere near the distress that would impact the workers and that he knew “just about everything there is to know about” automation. Uh-huh.
Back to AI world, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei projects AI could wipe out half of the entry-level white-collar jobs. Mass erasure of technology, finance, law, and consulting is coming. He says it could “reorder society overnight.” Is that biblical overnight, earthly overnight, or nebulously figurative overnight, which could mean anything?
Axios writes, “Lawmakers don’t get it or don’t believe it. [duh] CEOs [tech and consulting] are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won’t realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.” So, this reminds me – the Trump Administration desperately wants to win the AI race[1][2]. But is it worth the worker dislocation pain, Automation Zen Master?
Employment Evolution
There’s so much to say. I don’t know where to begin. How about a question: How many jobs did Microsoft Word and Excel wipe out? How many jobs did the Internet destroy in the telecommunications and travel industries? When I started flying, I actually called a human at Northwest Airlines to purchase my tickets, which were delivered by snail mail – more lost jobs! Oh my God! Panic now before it’s too late!
Relax. Some jobs are headed for extinction, like the call center folks at Northwest Airlines, mail handlers, and “secretaries.” Low and mid-level coder jobs are on the chopping block. I can’t think of anything more awful than coding. I’d rather cut meat on a factory assembly line all day.
There are also plenty of constraints holding AI back, like, uh, the rickety supply of electricity, which I’ve written about four or five hundred times. Second, consultants are not allowed to use AI on government contracts. For that matter, Mx. Utility, do you mind if we turn your customer experience over to Sam Altman, Mark Zuck, and Mr. Dario?
Other factors include harnessing AI in our daily jobs and getting folks to adopt it. That doesn’t happen “overnight.” Early in my career, I witnessed old-timers who never used a word processor. They continued to hand-write stuff and give it to the “secretary” to type it up. People like their fiefdoms of busy work, and they do not naturally look for ways to displace them.
Broad swaths of tasks (coding) are a different thing. When the adopter (CEO &CIO) and the affected persons (coders) are different people, it can happen fast. A LinkedIn post puts it like this: “If you are a 22-year-old with a liberal arts degree, a Gmail tab open, and a calendar full of coffee chats, the existential dread might be understandable.” Forbes was right.
AI Cannot do IA
At Michaels Energy, we have a thing called “intuitive analysis” – IA, Isn’t that interesting? AI spelled backwards. AI will never replace IA because IA and common sense cannot be programmed. AI cannot produce original content or novel ideas. That will remain the realm of creative three-pound organs.
[1]https://michaelsenergy.com/ai-nukes-and-the-entropic-vortex/
[2]https://michaelsenergy.com/ai-manufacturing-and-the-bridge-out-ahead/
