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The Big Why of Evaluation

Evaluation in a Post-Standards World

By The Big Why of Evaluation No Comments
As with building energy codes, equipment standards are a very cost-effective way to save energy by requiring a minimum level of energy efficiency for certain products, thereby transforming the market. Similarly, the Environmental Protection Agency's ENERGY STAR program has resulted in decades of energy savings supported by relatively little federal spending. However, recent federal changes put both standards and the ENERGY STAR certification at risk. Let's investigate the impacts of these unnecessary changes and their effect on evaluations. What Are Standards? Appliance and equipment standards are minimum efficiency requirements established by the federal or state governments for new products. By…
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Peering into the Spark Gap

By The Big Why of Evaluation
Electrification can have many benefits. These include higher efficiency (because of the refrigeration cycle and less waste heat), lower GHG emissions (due to an increasingly green grid), and many non-energy benefits (such as reduced indoor air pollution). However, these benefits are often not realized because of cheap natural gas. Known as the “spark gap,” the relatively lower cost of natural gas compared to electricity is a major barrier to replacing fossil fuel equipment with electric. Let’s peer into the spark gap and see how it can be overcome. Comparing Energy Source Prices The scatterplot below shows the average price of natural gas and electricity for…
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Energy Tariffs and Cost Effectiveness

By The Big Why of Evaluation
To say that 2025 has been chaotic in the energy sector is an understatement. From freezes of clean energy projects to cuts to funding and staffing of key government agencies to removal of publicly available data, the Trump administration has slashed our country’s ability to mitigate climate change. In addition to these attacks, Trump has also imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and many other countries. Notably, the tariffs include a 10% to 25% tariff on energy products from Canada. In response to the US economic aggression, Canada has called for a 25% surcharge on all electricity exported to the US.…
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The Spectre of Data Centers

By The Big Why of Evaluation
It seems every day I see news about the exploding growth of data centers, driven by artificial intelligence and crypto-currency mining. As AI gets integrated into everything (whether we want it or not), the energy required to do the same tasks multiplies. (A ChatGPT query uses about ten times more electricity than a traditional Google search – 2.9 Wh compared to 0.3 Wh, according to EPRI.) The data center boom could transform the electric grid, but there are major questions about extent to which it does so and how. Read on to learn more!  The Numbers Are Scary The estimated growth…
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When Things Don’t Work Together: The Impacts of Poor Equipment Interoperability

By The Big Why of Evaluation
After about a year since it was installed, my heat pump is finally up and running correctly! Why did it take so long? Controls issues. More specifically, because it is a dual-fuel system (an air source heat pump with a backup oil furnace) all of the components did not communicate properly with each other. The heat pump, furnace, and thermostat are all different brands and their integration was far from seamless. The system finally worked correctly switching from the primary heat (the heat pump) to the auxiliary heat (the furnace) at the specified temperature when my contractor figured out that they needed…
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Insights from Market Characterization Studies

By The Big Why of Evaluation
As savings from lighting and other low cost/high benefit opportunities become more difficult to achieve, program administrators need to look closely at different markets to understand where potential savings exist. Baseline or appliance saturation studies are great tools that give program administrators a snapshot of the market. They help to answer the questions “what percentage of homes or businesses have this type of widget?”, “how many widgets are in there in each home or business?”, and “how many of those widgets are energy efficient?” This helps program administrators understand their program in terms of potential participants and potential savings. However,…
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Counting Heat Pumps

By The Big Why of Evaluation
Heat pumps present one of the best tools for decarbonization. They are very efficient compared to other heating technologies, are similar in price to air conditioning systems, and rely on an electric grid that is getting cleaner over time. Because of this, many states and regions, as well as the federal government, aggressively promote heat pumps and have set ambitious goals for their installation. Given the importance of these goals, accurate tracking of the number of heat pumps installed and their impacts is crucial. Therefore, it is very surprising to see the lack of consistency in reporting heat pump installations. For example,…
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Electric Lawn Equipment: A Gateway to Additional Savings?

By The Big Why of Evaluation
I recently bought an electric lawn mower. I’m not one to gush (or really care) about lawn equipment (or my lawn, for that matter), but I must say my electric lawn mower is amazing. I feel like it has changed my life. And apparently I am not alone. I read an ACEEE study recently that highlighted how electric lawn equipment is a gateway technology for further home electrification. Of course, my evaluator brain immediately jumped to wondering about how utility programs claim any savings related to the additional electrification. Why Electric Lawn Mowers Are Awesome According to the EPA’s 2020 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) data,…
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Exploring Evaluability Assessments

By The Big Why of Evaluation
When I was asked a while back to be a guest writer for this blog, it’s not surprising that my ideas kept drifting toward Evaluability Assessments. Anyone who has worked with me knows that I’m a planner and I like to be prepared. (Dare I say over-prepared.) Full disclosure -- I’m a lister, I create outlines and frameworks, and I love roadmaps. I like to have guardrails and structure to help me focus on what is most important. I thrive when I can set a goal in my sights and devise alternative paths to get to my destination. There is…
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Demonstrating Industrial Electrification

By The Big Why of Evaluation
The industrial sector accounts for about one-quarter of US greenhouse gas emissions but is categorized as very difficult to decarbonize. This is primarily due to the large amounts of energy and heat required for industrial processes, but there are many other barriers as well, including cost and lack of commercialized technologies. In an effort to reduce these barriers to industrial decarbonization, the Department of Energy recently announced a large amount of funding. Let’s explore! Industrial Decarbonization Demonstration Program At the end of March, the Department of Energy announced that it had awarded over $6 billion to 33 demonstration projects across the US to reduce…
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