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Apr 23
Love78

Solar Wars

By Energy Rant No Comments
A year ago, I introduced the mantle curve to illustrate California's overgeneration of solar power and the resulting need for curtailment. In 2022, California's scoping study set a target for an additional 60 gigawatts (GW) or 60,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation to be deployed by 2030. Below are the forecast curves from last year's post in May. The system was penetrating the overgeneration region, but the net load was above zero MW. Similar forecast loads from last week are provided below. We see the net load digs below zero MW, into the mantle. Granted, the first chart represents a week in May last year, while the second represents…
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Jan 10
Love10

A Twelve-Pack for 2023

By Energy Rant No Comments
A Twelve-Pack for 2023 Last year Las Vegas booked my predictions at 1:1.5 odds. This year I’m being more aggressive and expect something closer to a 3:1 weighted average. Below, I include my estimates for each forecast. Ukraine War I’ll get the tough stuff out of the way first. The Ukraine war will not end peacefully with a desirable outcome as long as the bipartisan U.S. congress keeps laundering money through the military-industrial complex (and others) in this proxy war with Russia. (Odds: 1:2) There is no exit strategy. Thirty billion here. Forty billion there. When that runs out, we’ll…
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Oct 26
Love0
Wild Energy Ride

Next Up: A Wild Energy Ride

By Energy Rant One Comment
It has been a frothy year for the energy industry, and it will continue well into next year and beyond. How far? Heh heh. Let’s start with coal. After plummeting 30% in 2020, consumption bounced back, gaining 35% in 2021. Doing the math, that doesn’t quite get coal back to 2019 consumption. Coal plants are still closing at a breakneck pace, so consumption in the United States is bound to decline in the long haul, but will load balancers and utilities be able to keep the lights on in 2030? This is a concern to me because no source of…
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Mar 25
Love0

Rooftop Solar’s Tiger by the Tail

By Energy Rant 3 Comments
Four years after I explained why distributed rooftop solar on every home bucks every successful ongoing business trend in existence, Keith Dennis proves it in Public Utilities Fortnightly. His article: NOT Zero Energy. The vehicle for Mr. Dennis’ flatulent beef is zero net energy – or ZNE as it is known in the jargon language – homes. However, it is not the design of the ZNE home, which is uber fuel efficient: uber insulated, ventilation energy recovery, and efficient equipment. It is a fallacy that a ZNE, when equipped with solar generation, is good for society or net emissions. The…
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Aug 06
Love0

Maxed Out Renewable Energy

By Energy Rant One Comment
We’re leading off with Texas once again – the petri dish mixing massive shares of wind energy, the nation’s largest free-market for electricity, and commensurate spikes in cost. See the $900 per gallon kWh. Fatefully, on July 27, 2018, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) rejected a proposal for 2 GW of new wind generation proposed by American Electric Power. For perspective, that would be about 700 giant turbines, although I’m not sure of the exact capacity of these behemoths today. Wind’s Speed Limit Possibly, the PUCT realizes there is something a little weird with a market providing long…
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Aug 31
Love0

Distributed Energy; Batteries and Bread Machines

By Energy Efficiency, Energy Rant 3 Comments
The Association of Energy Services Professionals (AESP) Summer Conference included interesting bookend plenary discussions for this post.  The opening plenary featured motivational speaker, Murray Banks; not to be confused with Matt Foley: “eating a steady diet of government cheese and living in a van down by the river”.  Actually, if triathlons and mountaineering were auto racing, the Banks family would be the Andrettis. The closing plenary featured representatives from SolarCity, Opus One Solutions, and Enbridge, Inc.  SolarCity is the Elon Musk-owned photovoltaic manufacturer/installer.  Opus One is a smart grid software company with ties to Tesla as well.  Enbridge is a…
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Jun 08
Love0

Tesla Powerwall and the Disruption of Rational Thought

By Energy Efficiency, Energy Rant 3 Comments
Howitzer Explosion Guy.  That was the nickname Wayne Campbell of Wayne’s World gave to Wolf Blitzer, CNN’s correspondent for the Gulf War in 1991.  “Sheeyeeaaah.  I’m so sure.”  “He just made it up for the war.”  Too bad Wayne isn’t still doing his show from his parents’ basement on community access channel 10 in Aurora, Illinois.  I would like his assessment of Elon Musk.  Pierre GQ Manly – like Larry Ellison, minus the useful products. One thing is for sure, solar panels of the photovoltaic type are certainly sexier than, oh, a fractionally expensive building surgery that provides equal quantity…
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All things energy. That’s our jam.

We talk a lot about energy – from the serious to the satirical.

All things energy. That’s our jam.

We talk a lot about energy – from the serious to the satirical.

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